White Christmas could be a dream in much of Michigan

• Temperatures in the 40s expected for much of Michigan for the next two weeks
• Meteorologists say warm temperatures and lack of precipitation is caused by El Niño 
• The weather phenomenon causes places like Canada and the northern U.S. to be warmer than usual

Christmas is less than two weeks away, and the chances of a snowy holiday aren’t looking so hot for much of Michigan.

Although there was measurable snow on Halloween this year in southern Michigan, the National Weather Service and other forecasting models indicate that warmer weather is putting a damper on chances for snow.

The service estimates a 45 percent chance of 1 inch of snow or  more by Dec. 25 in southern Michigan, along Interstate 94 from Kalamazoo to Detroit, and a slightly higher chance in northern Michigan.

Walt Felver, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service, told Bridge that areas south of Muskegon and Flint will “certainly” have a green Christmas, while there is a slightly better chance of snow in Traverse City or Alpena.

“What we're [experiencing] right now is a very warm December, and we're in the middle of a very warm December with not a lot of precipitation,” Felver said. 

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In the Lower Peninsula, temperatures are expected to be in the 40s through next week, while it won’t be that much colder in much of the Upper Peninsula, according to weather.com.

The lack of snow is partially blamed on  El Niño, a phenomenon that occurs when warm water is pushed east toward North and South America. When this happens, the Pacific jet stream, a band of strong winds blowing from east to west, shifts south, causing Canada and the northern U.S. to be warmer and drier. 

There have been about 43 inches of snow in the Upper Peninsula so far this season, which is nearly 33 inches below normal. 

In southeast Michigan, 4 inches of snow have fallen so far this season, 2 inches below normal. 

Temperatures have also been above average across the state. 

“On the flip side, travel impacts will be severely minimized as well,” Felver said. Flight delays should be minimized and driving efficiency should improve. 

AAA predicts 3.6 million Michigan residents will travel for the holidays between Dec. 23 and Jan. 1, with all but 300,000 of them traveling by car.

This year is on track to be the second-busiest holiday for travel since 2019. 

“We're already expecting busy roadways with a lot of people traveling, so if you do not have inclement weather that's one less delay,” said Adrienne Woodland, spokesperson for AAA.